Political abstention may prove to be in UPA's favour

EAGLE EYE: UPA and NDA will have their headcount managers keeping an eye on the present and the absent.

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Keywords: Abstention, Mamata Banerjee

New Delhi: To vote or not to vote - that is the question before many of India's politicians. But as the UPA gets set to face the make or break trust vote on July 22, not voting turns out to be a big help for it too.

The Parliamentary procedure stipulates that the incumbent Government must get at least 50 per cent support of those present in the Lok Sabha to win a trust vote. While there are many who feel the Government should aim for a huge majority to show the world that it has the backing of the entire political fraternity, the reality of course is far removed.

Take Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress for instance. In all probability, she will come to Parliament on the D-Day and make a stirring speech, but abstain from the actual voting - a decision borne out of her reluctance to support a deal that's been dubbed as anti-minority and her refusal to engage the BJP anymore.

"Rather than going in for these kind of deals, the Government should seek a fresh mandate," said Banerjee.

Then there are others who are physically not fit enough to help the BJP in operation Topple Manmohan.

• Film star Dharmendra is in Los Angeles for a knee operation.
• Mahesh Kanodia, MP from Patan, is recovering from an open heart surgery.
• Harish Chandra Chavan, MP from Malegaon, is recovering from a fractured right arm, head injuries and multiple fractures on his right thighs.

Then there are those who wish to support the nuclear deal but can't as they are on the Opposition's side.

The 12-member Shiv Sena and the eight-member Akali Dal are facing internal pressure to go with the deal. Whips have been issued by the high command of both the parties, but the internal dissent hasn't died down.

Within the BJP too, there is a strong possibility of abstentions, with a huge section not opposed to the deal.

While a realistic figure for the Government is between 264 and 267, the UPA is not losing hope. Says UPA leader Veerapa Moily, "There is a possibility of Akali Dal absentitions happening."

So in this fight to the finish, the UPA and the NDA will have their headcount managers keeping an eagle eye on who is marked present and who is marked absent.